XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) trades near $1.27, down 13.8% in the past 24 hours, as the Senate blocked cloture on the Clarity Act and spot ETF inflows hit zero. The token is now 25.3% below its August 22 high of $1.70, erasing most of the 28.5% gain recorded during August, which was its best month since 2021.
The regulatory setback occurred on Tuesday, September 15, when the Senate failed to secure the 60 votes needed for cloture on the Clarity Act. Although Republicans released a revised version with new ethics restrictions on Sunday, the changes were insufficient to overcome opposition. The bill was intended to establish clearer rules for digital assets and define the roles of the SEC and CFTC. Its failure removes a near-term regulatory catalyst that traders had been monitoring closely.
With the legislative path stalled, attention shifts to the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision. XRP has already weakened as rate-hike expectations increased, meaning the Fed's guidance and updated projections could be as significant as the rate decision itself. Higher rates typically pressure altcoins, a dynamic compounded by Bitcoin's failure to reclaim $80,000 on three recent attempts.
Market structure data indicates a sharp shift in sentiment. Derivatives funding fell to negative 0.0094%, its lowest level since June 28, while Bollinger Bands tightened to their narrowest range in 236 days before resolving sharply to the downside. XRP has fallen below its 200-day moving average at $1.355 and its 20-day EMA at $1.3055. The next major support level is $1.23, with $1.21 below it.
ETF demand has also cooled significantly. U.S. spot XRP funds recorded $0 in net inflows on September 11, following inflows of $12.29 million on September 8 and $5.14 million on September 9. New XRP ETF products are delayed until October, reducing near-term catalysts to counter selling pressure.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $1.27 |
| 24-Hour Change | -13.8% |
| Distance from Aug 22 High | -25.3% |
| Required Gain to $1.50 | 18.1% |
| Next Major Support | $1.23 |
Historical patterns reinforce the bearish outlook for September. Santiment data shows XRP moved in the opposite direction from August in seven of the past eight years. Specifically, September fell 14% in 2020 and 19.6% in 2021 after August finished higher. With XRP up 28.5% in August, the seasonal setup was already bearish before this latest sell-off.
On-chain data reveals that some mid-term holders took profits during the rally. Wallets holding XRP for three to six months reduced their share of supply from 6.41% to 5.76%. Institutional adoption remains a counterpoint, with Goldman holding roughly $87 million in XRP exposure and Schwab disclosing XRP ETFs as repo collateral. However, these positives are currently outweighed by weaker near-term conditions.
Reaching $1.50 now requires an 18.1% gain, a move roughly ten times larger than what was needed before the recent sell-off began. The $3.84 record high is far removed from the current setup, making the ability to hold the $1.23 support level the primary technical test for the token.