On-chain analysis shows that Bitcoin's current wave of capitulation selling is running at roughly half the intensity of the episode recorded in February, according to data cited by Futu NiuNiu. The finding points to a gradual easing of sell-side pressure, though a second distinct wave of forced selling has been confirmed. The contrast between the two episodes is the key signal analysts are watching.
What the On-Chain Data Shows
The February capitulation event set the baseline for this comparison. The current, second wave registers at approximately half that magnitude on the intensity metrics Futu NiuNiu referenced — meaning fewer coins are changing hands at a loss per unit of time relative to the earlier episode. Capitulation intensity, in on-chain analysis, typically measures the scale of coins moved below their acquisition cost; a lower reading indicates that holders are either waiting out the drawdown or have already sold.
Reading the "Gradually Waning" Signal
The phrase "gradually waning" carries analytical weight here. It does not mean selling has stopped — a second wave implies fresh cohorts of holders who bought after February are now underwater and exiting. What the data suggests is that the pool of sellers willing to realize losses is shrinking with each successive wave. A halving of intensity between wave one and wave two is consistent with a market working through its weakest hands in stages rather than in a single flush.
What This Reading Does Not Confirm
The analysis identifies direction, not destination. Futu NiuNiu's data does not establish a price floor for $BTC, nor does it indicate when a third wave might materialize or how large it could be. Capitulation intensity can re-accelerate if a new catalyst drives spot prices lower and pulls a fresh cohort of holders into loss territory. The current reading is a trailing measure of realized stress, not a forward guarantee of stabilization.
The practical takeaway from the comparison: the market's second capitulation wave has been materially smaller than its first, and on-chain flow data supports the case that aggregate selling pressure is declining — even if it has not yet fully exhausted itself.